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Friday, May 23, 2008
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Near resistance
Gold managed to bounce from the vicinity of its Fibonacci 50% retracement level to the vicinity of its 38.2% retracement level, where former support may be expected to offer resistance.
GOLD (daily)
Upside: RSI still rising, hasn't reached 50 yet. MACD making a bullish crossover.
Resistance: Fib 38.2% level at about $888; round number at $900; falling 50-day MA, currently near $929.
Downside: Resistance immediately overhead. Friday's doji candlestick resembles a bearish hanging man.
Support: Fib 50% level at about $843; 200-day MA, currently near $829.
Bottom line: Gold showing signs of strength but could trade choppily in a range as it bumps against overhead resistance.
SILVER (daily)
Upside: RSI hasn't reached 50 yet. MACD making a bullish crossover.
Resistance: Magenta line; declining 50-day MA, currently at $18.14.
Downside: RSI flattening out. MACD's slope rather gentle, so crossover doesn't look particularly convincing. Friday's doji candlestick resembles a bearish hanging man.
Support: Rising 200-day MA, currently at $15.43.
Bottom line: Silver has been trading in a range between about $16.50 and a little above $17. It faces a fair amount of overhead resistance.
GDX (daily)
Upside: MACD has made a bullish crossover.
Resistance: Bottom rail of red channel; falling 50-day MA, currently near $49.
Downside: GDX closed just beneath the flat 200-day MA on Friday, forming a candlestick that resembles a bearish hanging man. RSI is being repelled at 50.
Support: Double bottom at $41.61.
Bottom line: GDX showing strength but faces significant overhead resistance.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (daily)
Upside: No clear indication.
Resistance: Thursday's high of 73.89; top rail of channel.
Downside: Thursday's doji candlestick resembles a bearish shooting star. RSI may be forming a head and shoulders. MACD-Histogram declining.
Support: 50-day MA, which is flattening out and currently at 72.44; bottom rail of channel.
Bottom line: Dollar's upward momentum seems to be flagging.
GOLD (daily)Upside: RSI still rising, hasn't reached 50 yet. MACD making a bullish crossover.
Resistance: Fib 38.2% level at about $888; round number at $900; falling 50-day MA, currently near $929.
Downside: Resistance immediately overhead. Friday's doji candlestick resembles a bearish hanging man.
Support: Fib 50% level at about $843; 200-day MA, currently near $829.
Bottom line: Gold showing signs of strength but could trade choppily in a range as it bumps against overhead resistance.
SILVER (daily)Upside: RSI hasn't reached 50 yet. MACD making a bullish crossover.
Resistance: Magenta line; declining 50-day MA, currently at $18.14.
Downside: RSI flattening out. MACD's slope rather gentle, so crossover doesn't look particularly convincing. Friday's doji candlestick resembles a bearish hanging man.
Support: Rising 200-day MA, currently at $15.43.
Bottom line: Silver has been trading in a range between about $16.50 and a little above $17. It faces a fair amount of overhead resistance.
GDX (daily)Upside: MACD has made a bullish crossover.
Resistance: Bottom rail of red channel; falling 50-day MA, currently near $49.
Downside: GDX closed just beneath the flat 200-day MA on Friday, forming a candlestick that resembles a bearish hanging man. RSI is being repelled at 50.
Support: Double bottom at $41.61.
Bottom line: GDX showing strength but faces significant overhead resistance.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (daily)Upside: No clear indication.
Resistance: Thursday's high of 73.89; top rail of channel.
Downside: Thursday's doji candlestick resembles a bearish shooting star. RSI may be forming a head and shoulders. MACD-Histogram declining.
Support: 50-day MA, which is flattening out and currently at 72.44; bottom rail of channel.
Bottom line: Dollar's upward momentum seems to be flagging.
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Stronger support
Gold began the week with the most anemic of bounces before continuing its decline. The yellow metal found stronger support in the vicinity of its November high, January low and Fibonacci 50% retracement level. Gold may bounce around in this area for a while before falling further.
GOLD (daily)
Upside: Fib 50% level supplying support. RSI appears to be bouncing off 30. MACD-Histogram has flattened out.
Resistance: Fib 38.2% level at about $888.
Downside: MACD still falling.
Support: Fib 50% level at about $843; 200-day MA, currently at $823.73.
Bottom line: Gold may bounce a bit and perhaps trade in a range before resuming its decline.
GOLD (weekly)
Some support is evident in the $840-$850 area. RSI, which is just below 50, has often bounced in the past from a similar level. Gold may pause for a while before resuming its decline, which could take it to its 50-week MA and Fib 61.8% retracement level, both currently just below $800.
SILVER (daily)
Upside: RSI rising. MACD-Histogram flattening out.
Resistance: Magenta line; declining 50-day MA, currently at $18.34.
Downside: MACD still falling.
Support: Rising 200-day MA, currently at $15.34.
Bottom line: Silver may bounce here and perhaps trade in a range before resuming its decline.
SILVER (weekly)
Support is evident here at the bottom rail of the channel, near the Fibonacci 50% retracement level at around $16.26. RSI, which is just below 50, has often bounced in the past from a similar level. Silver may pause for a while before resuming its decline, which could take it to its 50-week MA and Fib 61.8% retracement level, both currently near $15.
GDX (daily)
Upside: GDX bounced on Thursday from an intraday low of $41.61, the precise level of December's low, in the process making a bullish hammer-like candlestick on the highest volume in more than a month. RSI rising. MACD-Histogram starting to rise.
Resistance: Flat 200-day MA, currently at 45.93; volume-by-price bars show plenty of overhead resistance beyond that.
Downside: MACD still falling.
Support: Thursday's low at $41.61.
Bottom line: GDX likely to bounce and at least fill the gap around $44. It could possibly also retest its 200-day MA from below.
GDX (weekly)
The double bottom at $41.61 happens to coincide with the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, adding to its credentials as strong support.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (daily)
Upside: On Thursday, the index broke out of a small consolidation, and it continued to rise strongly on Friday. RSI and MACD rising steadily.
Resistance: Top rail of channel.
Downside: No clear indication.
Support: Falling 50-day MA, currently at 72.59; bottom rail of channel.
Bottom line: Dollar's rally likely to continue for a while longer.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (weekly)
MACD has made a bullish crossover. RSI rising strongly. Dollar is in solid rally mode.
GOLD (daily)Upside: Fib 50% level supplying support. RSI appears to be bouncing off 30. MACD-Histogram has flattened out.
Resistance: Fib 38.2% level at about $888.
Downside: MACD still falling.
Support: Fib 50% level at about $843; 200-day MA, currently at $823.73.
Bottom line: Gold may bounce a bit and perhaps trade in a range before resuming its decline.
GOLD (weekly)Some support is evident in the $840-$850 area. RSI, which is just below 50, has often bounced in the past from a similar level. Gold may pause for a while before resuming its decline, which could take it to its 50-week MA and Fib 61.8% retracement level, both currently just below $800.
SILVER (daily)Upside: RSI rising. MACD-Histogram flattening out.
Resistance: Magenta line; declining 50-day MA, currently at $18.34.
Downside: MACD still falling.
Support: Rising 200-day MA, currently at $15.34.
Bottom line: Silver may bounce here and perhaps trade in a range before resuming its decline.
SILVER (weekly)Support is evident here at the bottom rail of the channel, near the Fibonacci 50% retracement level at around $16.26. RSI, which is just below 50, has often bounced in the past from a similar level. Silver may pause for a while before resuming its decline, which could take it to its 50-week MA and Fib 61.8% retracement level, both currently near $15.
GDX (daily)Upside: GDX bounced on Thursday from an intraday low of $41.61, the precise level of December's low, in the process making a bullish hammer-like candlestick on the highest volume in more than a month. RSI rising. MACD-Histogram starting to rise.
Resistance: Flat 200-day MA, currently at 45.93; volume-by-price bars show plenty of overhead resistance beyond that.
Downside: MACD still falling.
Support: Thursday's low at $41.61.
Bottom line: GDX likely to bounce and at least fill the gap around $44. It could possibly also retest its 200-day MA from below.
GDX (weekly)The double bottom at $41.61 happens to coincide with the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, adding to its credentials as strong support.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (daily)Upside: On Thursday, the index broke out of a small consolidation, and it continued to rise strongly on Friday. RSI and MACD rising steadily.
Resistance: Top rail of channel.
Downside: No clear indication.
Support: Falling 50-day MA, currently at 72.59; bottom rail of channel.
Bottom line: Dollar's rally likely to continue for a while longer.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (weekly)MACD has made a bullish crossover. RSI rising strongly. Dollar is in solid rally mode.
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