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June gold paused at the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level on Friday. We may enjoy a brief respite before the plunge resumes.
GOLD (daily)
Upside: The Fib 38.2% level is supplying support. RSI has flattened out.Resistance: 50-day MA, currently flat at about $942.Downside: MACD has made a bearish crossover.Support: Fib 50% level at about $843.Bottom line: Gold may come up for air before resuming its decline.
SILVER (daily)
Upside: Silver made a bullish hammer candlestick on Friday. RSI rising.Resistance: Purple line; flat 50-day MA, currently at $18.43.Downside: MACD has made a bearish crossover.Support: Past support in the $16.25-$16.75 range; rising 200-day MA, currently at $15.25.Bottom line: Silver may bounce briefly before resuming its decline.
SILVER (weekly)
Support may be found at the bottom rail of the channel, near the Fibonacci 50% retracement level around $16.26.
GDX (daily)
Upside: RSI rising. GDX may test the breached 200-day MA from below.Resistance: 200-day MA, currently at 45.87; volume-by-price bars show plenty of overhead resistance beyond that.Downside: The gold-mining ETF collapsed out of the flag and through support at the rising 200-day MA.Support: December low at $41.61.Bottom line: GDX could bounce here but should soon resume its decline, which is unlikely to end before it reaches the vicinity of $41.
GDX (weekly)
Some support is apparent here, at the top of the purple channel, the rising 50-week MA and the Fibonacci 50% retracement level.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (daily)
Upside: After seven weeks, the index has broken back convincingly into the channel. RSI is back over 50. MACD is rising strongly. Resistance: 50-day MA, currently just above at 72.89; top rail of channel.Downside: Conceivable that the 50-day MA could hold the dollar back.Support: Bottom rail of channel; recent lows above 71.Bottom line: The dollar has formed a decent base from which to launch a rally, possibly to the top of the channel.
On Wednesday June gold poked above its 50-day MA -- which has now flattened out and is running along the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement line -- but failed to stay above it for very long. The yellow metal plunged nearly 3% on Friday to start the next leg of a decline that could take it back below $800 in a matter of weeks.
GOLD (daily)
Upside: MACD has made a bullish crossover.Resistance: 50-day MA, currently a little above $943, coinciding with the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level.Downside: Gold repelled by nearly flat 50-day MA and Fib 23.6% level. RSI back below 50. MACD-Histogram falling toward zero.Support: February and April closing lows and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level at $888; Fib 50% level at about $843.Bottom line: Gold appears to be resuming its decline.
GOLD (weekly)
Gold was repelled by the top rail of the channel and is headed back down toward its 50-week MA and the bottom rail.
SILVER (daily)
Upside: The purple line has provided support for the past two weeks. MACD has made a bullish crossover (just barely).Resistance: Thin channel line; 50-day MA, currently at $18.43.Downside: 50-day MA has offered resistance for the past two weeks. RSI back below 50. MACD-Histogram showing a distinct lack of vitality.Support: Purple line; April low at $16.30; 200-day MA, a little above $15.Bottom line: Silver appears to be resuming its decline.
SILVER (weekly)
The lower thin channel line has been providing support for several weeks, but MACD has a long way to fall.
GDX (daily)
Upside: Tentative thin channel line has provided support recently and could do so again.Resistance: 50-day MA, currently at $50.45; thick blue channel rail.Downside: The gold-mining ETF was repelled by the bottom rail of the channel from August and is now back below its flattish 50-day MA. RSI has turned back down below 50.Support: Thin blue line, currently at about $48.50; 200-day MA, currently at $45.70; April low at $45.53.Bottom line: April's rally has been marked by low and declining volume. GDX may be completing a month-long flag and resuming its decline, which could take it down to the $40-$41 range.
GDX (weekly)
Some support appears to lie around $45, but the bottom rail of the blue channel is currently at a little above $40.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (daily)
Upside: The index seems to have found support near 71.3. RSI and MACD rising. Resistance: Bottom rail of channel at around 72.5; 50-day MA, currently at 73.34.Downside: The index has failed to close inside the channel for more than five weeks.Support: Recent all-time low at 70.7.Bottom line: The dollar may be forming a base from which to mount another attempt to penetrate the channel.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (weekly)
RSI appears to be slowly forming a base just above 30, and MACD-Histogram is rising gradually.
June gold closed at $887.80 on Tuesday -- just 6 cents, or 0.007 per cent, below the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level -- and proceeded to bounce from there for the rest of the week. While gold's short-term bounce may not yet be over, its longer-term decline almost certainly isn't.
GOLD (daily)
Upside: Gold has bounced off its Fib 38.2% level. MACD-Histogram rising from double bottom.Resistance: 50-day MA around $940; Fib 23.6% level around $944.Downside: RSI remains below 50. MACD continues its decline.Support: February low and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level at $888; Fib 50% level at about $843; Fib 61.8% level at a little below $800, in the vicinity of the rising 200-day MA.Bottom line: Gold could rise a bit more but is likely to resume its decline before long.
SILVER (daily)
Upside: Silver bounced from its intraday low of $16.30 on Tuesday, just 5 cents above its Fibonacci 50% retracement level, and is now above the lower thin blue channel line. RSI showing a bullish divergence. MACD has flattened out, and MACD-Histogram is rising.Resistance: 50-day MA, currently at $18.10; thick blue channel line.Downside: RSI remains below 50.Support: November high and Fibonacci 50% retracement level at about $16.25; Fib 61.8% level at around $15, in the vicinity of the rising 200-day MA.Bottom line: Silver could rise a bit more but is likely to resume its decline before long.
GDX (daily)
Upside: GDX made a bullish hammer candlestick on Tuesday after hitting an intraday low a little above its 200-day MA. MACD and MACD-Histogram rising.Resistance: Bottom rail of channel at a little under 51, in the vicinity of the falling 50-day MA.Downside: RSI remains below 50.Support: 200-day MA, currently at $45.11.Bottom line: GDX could rise a bit more but is likely to resume its decline before long.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (daily)
Upside: MACD continues to rise.Resistance: Bottom rail of channel; 50-day MA; top rail of channel.Downside: The dollar's bounce failed again at the bottom rail of the channel.Support: Recent all-time low at 70.7.Bottom line: Plenty of room for MACD to rise before the dollar is no longer oversold.
GOLD (daily)
SILVER (daily)
SILVER (weekly)
GDX (daily)
GDX (weekly)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (daily)
