Turnaround has begun

Gold's $70 vault on Sept. 17 served as the exclamation point marking the end of the six-month decline that began after the yellow metal peaked on March 17. It remains highly improbable, however, that gold will exceed its all-time high of $1,033.90 any time soon. The most likely scenario is a return to the bottom of the weekly channel and a slow crawl along the uptrend line until gold builds up enough momentum to surmount the considerable resistance overhead.

GOLD (daily)

Gold's great leap forward on Wednesday and Thursday ended with the yellow metal closing a little above its 200-day MA. It then began to correct the excessive exuberance on Friday, filling the gap at $850 and closing the day just above the 50-day MA. RSI has turned downward. Support lies at the Fibonacci 50% retracement level, around $843, and then at the 61.8% level, around $798.

GOLD (weekly)

Gold has broken back in spectacular fashion into its channel, ending the week a little short of the 50-week MA. MACD has finally turned upward. RSI has made a double bottom and is now bumping up against 50. Clearly, considerable resistance lies overhead.

SILVER (daily)

Silver, too, is showing remarkable strength, and has yet to completely fill its own gap below $12. RSI leaped out of its oversold zone and was repelled at 50. MACD has made a bullish crossover.

SILVER (weekly)

Silver jumped to close just beneath the now broken green uptrend line, which could offer some resistance. Next resistance is at the magenta line, around $14. Silver may find support at its 200-week MA, currently at $11.83. RSI bounced off the 30 mark.

GDX (daily)

The gold-mining ETF sprang up on extremely high volume and hit its head against resistance at the bottom rail of the blue channel. RSI is back above 50. MACD has made a bullish crossover. Further resistance is at the next blue line and the 50-day MA nearby.

GDX (weekly)

The gold-mining ETF bounced off the bottom rail of its green channel, an important long-term trend line, but was held back by its 200-week MA. GDX will likely stay in the bottom half of its channel for some time to come.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (daily)

The index continues its decline, closing the gap below 77.5, where previous congestion provides some support. RSI has reached 50. MACD has made a bearish crossover.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (weekly)

The dollar is correcting its sharp rise and may test the support formed by extending the sides of the falling wedge. RSI has been repelled at 70.