Breakouts confirmed

Gold and silver have confirmed their breakouts, and the U.S. dollar index has broken down from a four-month channel. A test of the March highs (low, in the case of the dollar) is conceivable.

GOLD (daily)

Upside: August gold successfully tested its broken downtrend line and has risen above its initial breakout high. RSI and MACD rising.

Resistance: Round-number resistance at $1,000; all-time high of $1033.90.

Downside: No clear indication.

Support: Old downtrend line at about $910.

Bottom line: Gold has tested its broken downtrend line successfully and could enjoy a run of about $100 -- the depth of the head in the inverse head and shoulders. The initial target of about $1,020 could easily be exceeded in a test of March's all-time high.

GOLD (weekly)

RSI has bounced off 50. MACD is poised to make a bullish crossover. Top rail of blue channel may offer initial resistance in the $980-$1,000 range.

SILVER (daily)

Upside: Silver successfully tested its broken downtrend line and has risen above its initial breakout high. RSI and MACD rising.

Resistance: Round-number resistance around $20; March high of $21.44.

Downside: No clear indication.

Support: Old downtrend line, just above $18.

Bottom line: Silver has successfully tested the top of its blue channel -- or the neckline of an inverted head and shoulders -- with an initial target of about $20, which could be exceeded in a test of the March high.

SILVER (weekly)

RSI has bounced off 50. MACD is poised to make a bullish crossover. Thin blue line may offer initial resistance at around $20.

GDX (daily)

Upside: GDX has surmounted its 200-day MA and broken back into its purple channel on strong volume without fully closing the breakaway gap between $44 and $45. RSI rising. MACD rising after it failed to make a bearish crossover.

Resistance: Recent high at around $50 and at $51.45; all-time high of $56.87.

Downside: GDX has left a gap between $47 and $48 that may need to be filled.

Support: Bottom rail of purple channel; flat 200-day MA at $47.53.

Bottom line: The gold-mining ETF is rallying but still lagging the yellow metal.

GDX (weekly)

RSI is peeking above 50. MACD appears close to making a bullish crossover.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (daily)

Upside: No clear indication.

Resistance: Bottom rail of green channel; flat 50-day MA, currently at 72.96.

Downside: The index was held back by the flat 50-day MA at around 73 and confirmed its breakdown from the green channel by falling below its initial breakdown low. RSI and MACD falling.

Support: Bottom rail of blue channel; all-time low of 70.7.

Bottom line: The green channel may act as a bearish flag, indicating a significant decline in the dollar is under way.

GDX:$GOLD ratio (daily)

RSI is peeking above 50, and MACD is poised to make a bullish crossover, suggesting that the gold-mining index could rise faster than the yellow metal in the near future.

GDX:$SPX ratio (weekly)

RSI is above 50 and rising, and MACD has made a bullish crossover, indicating that the gold-mining stocks could continue to outperform the general market for some time.