Gold trending downward

As the U.S. dollar rallies in a well-defined channel, gold and silver are back in their downtrends.
GOLD (daily)

Upside: Long downtails on Thursday and Friday suggest some support near the rising 200-day MA.

Resistance: Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level at about $888; falling 50-day MA, just under the round number at $900.

Downside: Gold is still below its 50-day MA. MACD continues to decline.

Support: Rising 200-day MA, currently at $855; Fibonacci 50% retracement level at about $843; bottom rail of tentative thin blue channel.

Bottom line: Resistance near the falling 50-day MA has held gold down since late March and is squeezing the yellow metal against support at its rising 200-day MA. It won't be long before one or the other prevails and gives a clearer indication of gold's future direction.

SILVER (daily)

Upside: Silver is near the bottom rail of the tentative thin blue channel. Long downtails on Thursday and Friday suggest some support a little above the rising 200-day MA.

Resistance: Flat 50-day MA, currently at $17.23.

Downside: Silver is still below its 50-day MA. MACD continues to decline.

Support: Bottom rail of thin blue channel. Rising 200-day MA, currently at $15.99.

Bottom line: Silver may continue to trade within its downward-sloping channel.

GDX (daily)

Upside: The gold-mining ETF gapped down below $44 on Thursday and may return to close that gap.

Resistance: Falling 50-day MA at $46.35 and rising 200-day MA at $47.09.

Downside: The bearish crossover of the 50-day and 200-day MAs could hold GDX down. MACD failed to make a bullish crossover.

Support: Thursday's low at $42.70; double bottom at $41.61.

Bottom line: GDX, too, appears to be in a downtrend.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (daily)

Upside: The index bounced nicely off the bottom rail of its green channel and appears to be bound for the top rail. RSI is rising. MACD failed to make a bearish crossover.

Resistance: Top rail of green channel at about 74.6; top rail of blue channel at about 75.

Downside: RSI is close to levels at which recent dollar rallies have reversed.

Support: Rising 50-day MA at 72.67, bottom rail of green channel; bottom rail of blue channel.

Bottom line: The dollar could be near the end of the current leg of its rally as it approaches the top rail of its green channel.