Dollar plummets again

Gold rose more than $30 from its Thursday low to close just a buck under $900 on Friday, as the U.S. dollar index plummeted by just under 1.5 points from Thursday's high -- which, at 73.87, could be seen as making a double top with the high in May.

Is this a new downleg in the dollar, to be accompanied by a new upleg in gold? Or could the dollar merely be fluctuating within its upward-sloping channel? If the latter is the case, the index needs to respect the bottom rail of that channel, currently near 72.2.

GOLD (daily)

Upside: RSI rising, just above 50.

Resistance: Round number at $900; falling 50-day MA, currently at $901.53; recent high at around $935.

Downside: Gold is still below its 50-day MA. MACD has made a bearish crossover.

Support: Rising 200-day MA, currently near $850; Fibonacci 50% retracement level at about $843.

Bottom line: With a potential inverse head and shoulders beginning to form, the next few days could be critical for gold.

SILVER (daily)

Upside: Silver has risen above its falling 50-day MA. Support again found at about $16.50. RSI rising, now above 50. MACD making a bullish crossover.

Resistance: Magenta line, currently around $17.80.

Downside: No clear indication.

Support: Falling 50-day MA, currently at $17.30. Recent support at about $16.50. Rising 200-day MA, currently near $15.90.

Bottom line: Silver's bounce has been muted compared with that of gold, which the white metal tends to lead at turning points. We'll have to wait and see how the current action plays out.

GDX (daily)

Upside: After a strong bounce on Thursday, GDX gapped up on Friday to close just beneath the conjunction of its falling 50-day MA and rising 200-day MA. RSI back above 50. MACD appears to be making a bullish crossover.

Resistance: Falling 50-day MA and rising 200-day MA, both just above; bottom rail of purple channel.

Downside: The bearish crossover of the 50-day and 200-day MAs could hold GDX back. The gold-mining ETF could return to fill Friday's gap.

Support: Thursday's low at $44.30; double bottom at $41.61.

Bottom line: GDX, too, appears to be close to a turning point.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (daily)

Upside: No clear indication.

Resistance: Rising 50-day MA; top rail of green channel; top rail of blue channel.

Downside: The index is back beneath its rising 50-day MA. RSI is back below 50. MACD is poised to make a bearish crossover.

Support: Bottom rail of green channel; bottom rail of blue channel.

Bottom line: If the bottom of the green channel fails to hold, the channel could serve as a bearish flag, suggesting a significant decline to come in the dollar.