Falling gold takes a breather

June gold closed at $887.80 on Tuesday -- just 6 cents, or 0.007 per cent, below the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level -- and proceeded to bounce from there for the rest of the week. While gold's short-term bounce may not yet be over, its longer-term decline almost certainly isn't.

GOLD (daily)

Upside: Gold has bounced off its Fib 38.2% level. MACD-Histogram rising from double bottom.

Resistance: 50-day MA around $940; Fib 23.6% level around $944.

Downside: RSI remains below 50. MACD continues its decline.

Support: February low and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level at $888; Fib 50% level at about $843; Fib 61.8% level at a little below $800, in the vicinity of the rising 200-day MA.

Bottom line: Gold could rise a bit more but is likely to resume its decline before long.

SILVER (daily)

Upside: Silver bounced from its intraday low of $16.30 on Tuesday, just 5 cents above its Fibonacci 50% retracement level, and is now above the lower thin blue channel line. RSI showing a bullish divergence. MACD has flattened out, and MACD-Histogram is rising.

Resistance: 50-day MA, currently at $18.10; thick blue channel line.

Downside: RSI remains below 50.

Support: November high and Fibonacci 50% retracement level at about $16.25; Fib 61.8% level at around $15, in the vicinity of the rising 200-day MA.

Bottom line: Silver could rise a bit more but is likely to resume its decline before long.

GDX (daily)

Upside: GDX made a bullish hammer candlestick on Tuesday after hitting an intraday low a little above its 200-day MA. MACD and MACD-Histogram rising.

Resistance: Bottom rail of channel at a little under 51, in the vicinity of the falling 50-day MA.

Downside: RSI remains below 50.

Support: 200-day MA, currently at $45.11.

Bottom line: GDX could rise a bit more but is likely to resume its decline before long.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (daily)

Upside: MACD continues to rise.

Resistance: Bottom rail of channel; 50-day MA; top rail of channel.

Downside: The dollar's bounce failed again at the bottom rail of the channel.

Support: Recent all-time low at 70.7.

Bottom line: Plenty of room for MACD to rise before the dollar is no longer oversold.