First targets reached

April gold couldn't overcome resistance at the top rail of the blue channel on Friday and closed sharply down to rest on the top rail of the green channel. The yellow metal plunged further on Monday but rebounded from a low of $896, near support at the tentative Fibonacci line, to close at $909.40, above the support offered by the bottom rail of the blue channel around $900 and back inside the green channel. The long downtail on the candlestick suggests there may be enough support below for a small trading range to form here.

However, RSI continues to fall from overbought levels and shows a bearish divergence, as does the MACD histogram. MACD has made a bearish crossover and has plenty of room to decline, so the likelihood is that gold will fall out of the blue channel before it revisits its top rail again. Support may be expected at the 50-day MA, currently at $850.29 and rising.

March silver hit a 27-year high of $17.34 on Friday but closed at $16.87, below the green uptrend line and just below the Fibonacci target of $16.95. The resulting bearish shooting star was confirmed on Monday when silver fell out of the blue channel and hit a low of $16.44 before closing at $16.78. The long downtail on Monday's candlestick suggests we're in for a bit of choppy trading, but the red line joining the November and early-January highs will probably continue to offer resistance.

RSI is falling from overbought levels and is showing a bearish divergence, as is the MACD histogram. MACD is poised to make a bearish crossover at a high level. Silver is likely to decline to support at around $15.54 or its 50-day MA, currently at $15.29 and rising. Resistance now lies at the breached uptrend lines and Friday's high.

As expected, GDX fell through recent support at $50 on Friday and declined further on Monday to close at $48.15, after briefly penetrating the Fibonacci support level at about $48.

RSI is below 50 for the first time since Christmas Eve, when GDX was at around $45, and MACD continues to decline after failing to make a bullish crossover. Support may hold for a while at around $48 or at the 50-day MA, currently at $47.48 and rising, but GDX could then fall to the next Fibonacci support level near $45. Resistance may now be offered by the broken support at $50.

On the weekly chart of GDX, both RSI and the MACD histogram are showing a bearish divergence from price, and MACD has made a bearish crossover. These indicators confirm that the trend, for now, is down.

The U.S. dollar index bounced off a low of 74.85 on Friday, near projected support at around 74.79, to close just inside the symmetrical triangle. On Monday the index fell back out of the triangle and closed at 75.35.

RSI is falling, as is MACD, but the MACD histogram is rising. If resistance at the bottom edge of the triangle holds, the dollar may resume its downward trend and take out the all-time low at 74.48. If support at around 74.79 holds, the index may mount a rally back into the triangle. Next resistance would be at the 50-day MA, currently flat at 76.15.