A bounce, but how long will it last?

On Tuesday, April gold broke down from its blue channel and found support a little below the Fibonacci line. Gold broke back into the channel on Friday, closing at $922.30.

RSI has bounced from the vicinity of 50, and the MACD histogram is rising, so there is a good chance that gold's rally will continue for a bit longer. MACD is still at a high level, so the decline may be expected to resume in due course.

March silver fell sharply on Tuesday but found support at $16.23 on Wednesday, just 4 cents below its November high. It then rallied smartly on Thursday and Friday to close at $17.11, back in its blue channel and not far short of the previous Friday's high of $17.34.

RSI has risen strongly and is now approaching the overbought zone. The MACD histogram is rising gradually, but MACD remains at a high level, so while silver may have a little more room to rally, it could start falling again before long.

GDX fell below support at $48 on Tuesday, tested the new resistance on Wednesday, then bounced off the uptrend line joining the December and January lows on Thursday. On Friday the gold-mining ETF rose 3.59% to regain support at $48, closing at $48.54.

RSI is poised to break above 50, and the MACD histogram is rising. MACD is just below zero and has room to rise further.

GDX may be forming a symmetrical triangle and could rally to its upper edge, around $50.50. Support may be expected at the bottom edge, currently a little under $47.

The weekly chart of GDX shows bearish divergences in RSI and the MACD histogram, and MACD is poised to make a bearish crossover, so the medium-term trend is likely down.

The U.S. dollar index shot back up into the triangle on Tuesday, closing on its 50-day MA and the Fibonacci line. It rested there on Wednesday, then shot up again on Thursday. The index made an intraday high at 77.04, just shy of the medium-term downtrend line, then fell back on Friday.

RSI is back above 50, and MACD has made a bullish crossover.

The dollar could break out from the symmetrical triangle, in which case it is unlikely to be detained long by the Fibonacci resistance around 77.6. The breakout target would probably be the 200-day MA, currently just above 79 and falling. If the index fails to break out, support may be expected at 76.2 and then at the bottom edge of the triangle.