Sunday, January 6, 2008

There are no coincidences

March silver seems to have stalled in the region of the prior closing high on Nov. 9 at $15.55 and the putative Fibonacci 23.6% line at $15.54. It managed to make highs on Thursday and Friday of $15.53 and $15.57 respectively but closed on a doji, which spells uncertainty, at $15.46 on Friday.

RSI is flattening out (at close to overbought levels in the vicinity of 70), as is the MACD histogram. If silver pulls back here, it should find support first at $15 and then at the Fibonacci line at $14.70.

On the weekly chart, silver has managed to climb back above the broken uptrend line from August 2005, a bullish sign for the longer term.

Meanwhile, gold also closed with a doji on Friday, a little above its retaken uptrend line. RSI is declining within the overbought zone, and the MACD histogram has flattened out, so the yellow metal may take a breather here. If gold falls back out of the channel, support may be expected at the previous high of $848.

GDX, too, looks ready for a respite from its run toward $52.95, gapping down on Friday to close at $49.90. RSI has turned down from the high 60s, and the MACD histogram may be flattening out. The Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level could provide support near $48; next support would be at the 50-day MA, currently at $46.62.

The U.S. dollar index formed a hammer-like candlestick with a long lower tail on Friday, which could presage a hiatus in its decline. RSI and the MACD histogram may be flattening out here. Resistance would be likely at the old neckline around 76.2, with the 50-day MA a little way above. Next support would be at the recent closing low, near 74.8.

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