Start of a pullback?

April gold (StockCharts has switched from the February contract) has, as expected, encountered resistance at the top of the blue channel. Gold hit a record intraday high of $942.20 on Wednesday but closed well below that, at $926.30. On Thursday the yellow metal closed at an even $928.

RSI is falling within the overbought zone and is showing a bearish divergence -- as is MACD, which is at a level that preceded pullbacks in November and early January.

It is possible that gold will break out above the blue channel, but there is little indication of that happening any time soon. More likely is a pullback, at least to the bottom of the channel, around $900. Next support would be at the 50-day MA, which is currently approaching the $850 area.

March silver has found support at the blue and green uptrend lines and, on Thursday, peeked above the red line joining the November and early-January intraday highs, closing at an even $17.

RSI has risen into overbought territory, and MACD, while rising, is at a level close to those that preceded declines in November and early January.

It is conceivable that silver will rise to the top of its blue channel, in the $18.50-$19 range. A pullback may be more likely, possibly to the $15.50 area, where silver may find support from its rising 50-day MA.

GDX has traded in a range between roughly $50 and $52 for six days and closed on Thursday at $50.35. RSI is starting to fall, and MACD has failed to make a bullish crossover.

There is a gap beneath $50 that the gold-mining ETF could attempt to fill, and support could appear at around $48 or at the 50-day MA slightly below. Resistance would lie at the recent highs of $52.95 and $54.23.

The ostensible breakout of the GDX:$SPX ratio from its tentative green flag failed on Thursday when the ratio re-entered the channel. RSI is falling, and MACD has made a bearish crossover at a high level. The gold-mining sector has stopped leading the broader stock market, for the time being.

The U.S. dollar index cut through support at the putative uptrend line like a knife through butter on Wednesday, then tested the breakdown by kissing that line on Thursday and closing below it at 75.17.

RSI has been falling but may be flattening out, as may the MACD histogram. MACD failed to make a bullish crossover.

It would be bullish for the dollar if it succeeds in breaking back into the symmetrical triangle, in which case, resistance would be seen at the 50-day MA, currently at 76.15. Otherwise, support may be found at 74.77, November's all-time closing low, and then at the all-time intraday low of 74.48.