New all-time high for gold

Gold just failed to break its November high of $848 on Monday, reaching $847.40 before closing down at $838, its first-ever monthly close above $800. When trading reopened on Wednesday, February gold sliced through the resistance at $848 to close up $22 at $860, just above the bottom rail of the old channel that started in mid-August.

Spot gold closed above $850 for the first time in history.

RSI has entered the overbought zone, and resistance could still materialize here at the broken uptrend line. It would not be surprising if gold were to consolidate briefly above the old high before heading for the upper rail of the channel. Along the way, the yellow metal may pause to pay its respects to the all-time high in the futures at $887.50.

Silver was held back on the last two trading days of 2007 by resistance around $15 but smashed through it on Wednesday to close at $15.29, up 2.48% -- just short of gold's 2.63% rise. Fibonacci resistance lies around $15.54, near the November closing high, and the broken uptrend line is a little way beyond that.

GDX paused at its 50-day MA on Monday, then leapt 7.44% on strong volume on Wednesday to close at $49.24, near its highs of the day and well above the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement line at $48.06. The $48 area could provide support if the gold-mining ETF pauses here to digest its gains before making a run for the November high at $52.95. RSI has some room to go before it reaches the overbought zone.

Relative to the S&P 500 index, however, GDX is approaching overbought levels, as measured by the RSI of the GDX:$SPX ratio, after the ratio made a dramatic breakout from its flag on Wednesday.

The U.S. dollar index's brief bounce on Monday at its 50-day MA was followed by a drop on Wednesday that put it back below that moving average and the neckline of the little inverse head and shoulders that sparked the recent rally. RSI is falling after being repulsed at 50, and MACD has made a bearish crossover.