Gold and silver looking toppy

February gold was held back on Monday and Tuesday by the top rail of the old blue channel from mid-August. It closed both days at the top of the new green channel, forming spinning tops -- long-tailed candlesticks that potentially signify a change in trend. The intraday highs were practically identical ($915.90 and $916.10 respectively), so for all intents and purposes, the pair of candlesticks can be taken together as a bearish tweezer-top formation, similar to the one in early November that triggered the recent consolidation.

RSI is flattening out in overbought territory, MACD is at levels last seen at the November top, and the MACD histogram has begun to decline. It is likely that gold is at or near a short- to intermediate-term top.

March silver made an intraday high on Monday of $16.72, not far short of the projected Fibonacci target at $16.94. On Tuesday, silver came to rest on the broken uptrend line that it regained just last week, closing at $16.30, a mere three cents above its November high. Long-tailed candlesticks were formed both days, signifying uncertainty and a potential change in trend. A decline from here would create a bearish double top.

RSI is falling within overbought territory, MACD is close to levels last seen at the November top, and the MACD histogram has begun to decline.

On Monday, GDX gapped up on strong volume above its November high but closed near the low of the day. On Tuesday, the gold-mining ETF fell back through the old high, again on strong volume, to close down 3.96%. In the process, GDX formed a long bearish candlestick and a double top.

RSI has been repelled at 70, MACD is at levels seen at the September and November highs, and the MACD histogram has begun to decline.

Since GDX tends to lead gold, Tuesday's action in GDX is ominous for the yellow metal. At one fell swoop, the GDX:$GOLD ratio penetrated both its 200-day and 50-day moving averages to the downside. RSI has fallen below 50, and the MACD histogram is declining rapidly.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index has made a bullish hammer, a type of candlestick that has in the past two months preceded rallies of varying duration. First resistance is at the 50-day MA, currently at 76.16. Next resistance is at last week's high, around 76.5. Support is at around 74.8 and then at 74.48, the index's all-time low.