Sunday, January 20, 2008

A brief respite?

February gold found support at the bottom rail of the blue channel, around $880, on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. As a result, RSI has flattened out, but MACD is poised to make a bearish crossover, so the short-term trend remains down. First support is at the November high of $848.

March silver found support at its green uptrend line, closing on Friday at $16.22, just 5 cents shy of its November high and just beneath the bottom rail of the broken blue channel from August. As a result, RSI has turned upward and the MACD histogram is falling less steeply. Support lies initially at $15.54 and then at the 50-day MA, currently at $14.95. Resistance lies first at the recent high of $16.72 and then at the projected Fibonacci line around $16.94.

GDX found support near the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level of $48.06. The gold-mining ETF closed on Friday a little above that mark after penetrating the 50-day MA intraday. It formed a hammer-like candlestick, which often heralds a bullish reversal. RSI appears to be bouncing at 50, but MACD has made a bearish crossover, so the immediate outlook is unclear.

The U.S. dollar index met resistance at around 76.5, near the previous week's high. RSI is hovering around 50, but MACD is threatening to make a bullish crossover, so the index may extend its rally. Next resistance is at the downward-sloping blue line, currently around 77.5. Support lies at the 50-day MA, currently at 76.16, and then at the recent low of 75.20.

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