GDX breaks down

GDX has finally broken below the $46 support level, closing on Thursday one cent above the Nov. 19 low of $45.04. RSI has fallen away from 50, and MACD failed to make its bullish crossover -- which is bearish.

The gold-mining ETF may be heading toward a test of the early-October low of $42.87, or it might fall all the way to its 200-day MA, currently at $41.70.

$SILVER (Stockcharts is now using the March 2008 contract) closed on Thursday at $14.24, 10 cents below its 50-day MA. It is the first time the metal has closed below that moving average since early September. RSI has fallen through 50, and MACD has reversed to make a bearish crossover.

If nearby strong support at $14 is breached, silver could decline further to its 200-day MA, currently at $13.42, or the next Fibonacci support, just below that at $13.31.

Gold managed to close at $804 on Thursday, above the strong support around $800. While RSI remains above 50, MACD has failed in its attempt to make a bullish crossover -- which is bearish. If $800 gives way, next support is at the 50-day MA, currently just above $790.

The U.S. dollar index closed at 76.57 on Thursday, just below its 50-day MA. RSI and MACD are both rising. If closing prices are used, the inverse head and shoulders projects a target in the vicinity of the falling long-term trend line, near the Fibonacci resistance around 77.6.

Should the dollar rise that far, the price of gold may be expected to drop significantly.