Stepping back for perspective

Let's review some weekly charts.

Gold's pullback has reduced the degree to which it is overbought. RSI has fallen back through 70, although it remains high at about 66. The MACD histogram is declining from very high levels.

Bottom line: The chart doesn't offer much reason to expect an immediate recovery in the yellow metal.

Silver broke down from its large triangle in May, backtested the broken trendline, then bottomed in August. This month, it broke out through the top of the triangle at its very apex, which often indicates a fakeout. Sure enough, its upward spike was short-lived, and silver has fallen back beneath the tip of the triangle. RSI turned back down from the level at which it has been rebuffed during the past year, and the MACD histogram is declining.

Bottom line: Silver looks weak.

Silver is falling against gold. The $SILVER:$GOLD ratio was dramatically repelled by its 50-week moving average and is now testing support near its 200-week MA. Although RSI was rebuffed at 50, MACD has made a bullish crossover and is still rising.

GDX, too, is in corrective mode and could fall further to retest the top rail of its long channel. RSI was repelled convincingly at 70, and the MACD histogram is in a steep decline.

GDX is also falling against gold. The GDX:$GOLD ratio, which failed to stay above its falling channel, is now below both its declining 50-week and 200-week moving averages. RSI has broken down below 50, and MACD is threatening to make a bearish crossover.

If GDX is leading gold, it would appear that it's doing so to the downside.

GDX broke out dramatically against the S&P 500 index this month, but the GDX:$SPX ratio formed an ugly shooting star and has fallen back to test the top rail of its channel. RSI has fallen back through 70, and the MACD histogram is declining.

Where the ratio goes from here could indicate to investors whether the gold miners can be relied upon as a safe haven in case of a prolonged decline in the broader stock market.

The U.S. dollar is somewhat oversold and overdue for a decent bounce. RSI is well below 30, and while MACD has room to fall further, the MACD histogram has actually stopped declining.

When it comes, a significant bounce in the dollar could be matched by a significant slide in gold. If not, it would be extremely bullish for the yellow metal, since it would indicate that gold's rise was not purely a function of the decline in the dollar but that other powerful fundamental factors were at work.