Bounce and attempted re-entry

Gold bounced neatly off $773, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and attempted to re-enter its channel on Tuesday. It succeeded intraday but then fell to close at $791.40, just beneath the broken trendline. Bullish signs: RSI has risen back above 50%, and the MACD histogram has stopped declining.

If, however, the triple resistance offered by the trendline, the $800 round number and the Fibonacci level just above it should prove insuperable for the moment, gold could retreat to its 50-day MA (now around $767) or the Fibonacci 50% retracement level at $750.

Silver, like gold, bounced off suppport (at $14) but failed to stay in its channel after re-entering it, closing on Tuesday at $14.50, right on its trendline. It's bullish that RSI has risen back above 50% and that the MACD histogram has stopped declining.

If silver fails to clear the resistance offered by the broken trendline, it could fall back to its 50-day MA around $14, or even further to its 200-day MA, around Fibonacci support at $13.31.

GDX is looking strong, closing on Tuesday at $47.93, its high of the day, after bouncing off Fibonacci support at $46 and its 50-day MA at $46.62. RSI is back above 50%, and the MACD histogram has started to rise.

As the gold-mining ETF often leads gold slightly, a continued rise by GDX to breach the next Fibonacci resistance, around $49, would be bullish for the yellow metal.

Gold's recovery on Tuesday coincided with another decline in the U.S. dollar. RSI has fallen back beneath 30%, and MACD is threatening to make a bearish crossover.

The U.S. dollar index continues to show remarkable weakness, having managed so far only a brief rally of barely a week and barely a point.