Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Silver looking weak

Gold touched $772 Tuesday before closing $10 lower at $762, down 20 cents for the day. On the daily chart it left a doji with a long uptail, a candlestick resembling a shooting star, which is potentially bearish unless cancelled by a move higher the next day. RSI stopped just below 70, and MACD is right at its moving average.

The weekly chart, however, remains healthy, with a short-term Fibonacci target near $780 and an intermediate-term target around $860.

Silver again failed to close above resistance at $14 and has fallen to $13.66, near the middle of its trading range. Both RSI and MACD have made lower highs, suggesting that the metal has work to do.

The $SILVER:$GOLD ratio is looking weak, with RSI falling below 50 and MACD making a bearish crossover.

GDX fell $0.73 Tuesday, completing a bearish candlestick formation known as an evening star, and RSI has been repelled at 70. Support for GDX may be expected around $46, the top of the recent trading range.

Perhaps ominously for gold, the GDX:$GOLD ratio has turned down three times at resistance provided by its broken uptrend line.

Gold's weakness is accompanying strength in the U.S. dollar index, which is flattening out after a brief decline. RSI, MACD and MACD histogram are all rising, which suggests the dollar could recover further.

0 comments: