Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Turning down?

The gold price has flattened out over the past three days, with intraday declines being met by renewed buying, as can be seen in the shape of the daily candlesticks. MACD and RSI have both flattened out as well, and the MACD histogram has begun to slope downward, indicating a possible pullback.

Silver, too, experienced an intraday decline Tuesday with a close near unchanged. This resulted in a candlestick known as a hanging man, not the healthiest sign after a runup, particularly when that formation follows a shooting star. That was formed when the price of silver was rejected at Monday's high, which, incidentally, matched June's high of $13.87 to the cent.

GDX, the gold-mining ETF, appears to be forming an island top like those in April and July. This could indicate that a decent pullback is on the way, especially since RSI has fallen below 70 after a brief sojourn above that mark. The MACD histogram is showing a negative divergence.

The U.S. dollar index has now closed at an all-time low of 78.32, just below the previous low of 78.43, set in 1992. Both RSI and MACD are in oversold territory, so a bounce here wouldn't be surprising.

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