Goldbriefing is travelling this week and next. We'll be back in mid-October.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Turnaround has begun
Gold's $70 vault on Sept. 17 served as the exclamation point marking the end of the six-month decline that began after the yellow metal peaked on March 17. It remains highly improbable, however, that gold will exceed its all-time high of $1,033.90 any time soon. The most likely scenario is a return to the bottom of the weekly channel and a slow crawl along the uptrend line until gold builds up enough momentum to surmount the considerable resistance overhead.
GOLD (daily)
Gold's great leap forward on Wednesday and Thursday ended with the yellow metal closing a little above its 200-day MA. It then began to correct the excessive exuberance on Friday, filling the gap at $850 and closing the day just above the 50-day MA. RSI has turned downward. Support lies at the Fibonacci 50% retracement level, around $843, and then at the 61.8% level, around $798.
GOLD (weekly)
Gold has broken back in spectacular fashion into its channel, ending the week a little short of the 50-week MA. MACD has finally turned upward. RSI has made a double bottom and is now bumping up against 50. Clearly, considerable resistance lies overhead.
SILVER (daily)
Silver, too, is showing remarkable strength, and has yet to completely fill its own gap below $12. RSI leaped out of its oversold zone and was repelled at 50. MACD has made a bullish crossover.
SILVER (weekly)
Silver jumped to close just beneath the now broken green uptrend line, which could offer some resistance. Next resistance is at the magenta line, around $14. Silver may find support at its 200-week MA, currently at $11.83. RSI bounced off the 30 mark.
GDX (daily)
The gold-mining ETF sprang up on extremely high volume and hit its head against resistance at the bottom rail of the blue channel. RSI is back above 50. MACD has made a bullish crossover. Further resistance is at the next blue line and the 50-day MA nearby.
GDX (weekly)
The gold-mining ETF bounced off the bottom rail of its green channel, an important long-term trend line, but was held back by its 200-week MA. GDX will likely stay in the bottom half of its channel for some time to come.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (daily)
The index continues its decline, closing the gap below 77.5, where previous congestion provides some support. RSI has reached 50. MACD has made a bearish crossover.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (weekly)
The dollar is correcting its sharp rise and may test the support formed by extending the sides of the falling wedge. RSI has been repelled at 70.
GOLD (daily)Gold's great leap forward on Wednesday and Thursday ended with the yellow metal closing a little above its 200-day MA. It then began to correct the excessive exuberance on Friday, filling the gap at $850 and closing the day just above the 50-day MA. RSI has turned downward. Support lies at the Fibonacci 50% retracement level, around $843, and then at the 61.8% level, around $798.
GOLD (weekly)Gold has broken back in spectacular fashion into its channel, ending the week a little short of the 50-week MA. MACD has finally turned upward. RSI has made a double bottom and is now bumping up against 50. Clearly, considerable resistance lies overhead.
SILVER (daily)Silver, too, is showing remarkable strength, and has yet to completely fill its own gap below $12. RSI leaped out of its oversold zone and was repelled at 50. MACD has made a bullish crossover.
SILVER (weekly)Silver jumped to close just beneath the now broken green uptrend line, which could offer some resistance. Next resistance is at the magenta line, around $14. Silver may find support at its 200-week MA, currently at $11.83. RSI bounced off the 30 mark.
GDX (daily)The gold-mining ETF sprang up on extremely high volume and hit its head against resistance at the bottom rail of the blue channel. RSI is back above 50. MACD has made a bullish crossover. Further resistance is at the next blue line and the 50-day MA nearby.
GDX (weekly)The gold-mining ETF bounced off the bottom rail of its green channel, an important long-term trend line, but was held back by its 200-week MA. GDX will likely stay in the bottom half of its channel for some time to come.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (daily)The index continues its decline, closing the gap below 77.5, where previous congestion provides some support. RSI has reached 50. MACD has made a bearish crossover.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (weekly)The dollar is correcting its sharp rise and may test the support formed by extending the sides of the falling wedge. RSI has been repelled at 70.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Dollar corrects
The U.S. dollar index has finally halted its headlong rise to extremely overbought levels, losing more than a point on Friday. Conversely, gold and silver have started to turn upward, led by GDX, the gold-mining ETF.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (daily)
Upside: After falling 1.24 on Friday, the index could bounce briefly before resuming its decline.
Resistance: Thursday's high at 80.38.
Downside: A correction to the dollar's steep ascent is under way. RSI is showing a bearish divergence and has fallen out of the overbought zone. MACD-Histogram is also showing a bearish divergence. MACD looks poised to make a bearish crossover.
Support: Gap and congestion area below 77.5; upper rail of green channel; 50-day MA.
Bottom line: The dollar index has a long way to fall before any support appears.
GOLD (daily)
Upside: RSI is bouncing out of its oversold zone and is showing a bullish divergence.
Resistance: Bottom rail of blue channel; round number at $800.
Downside: MACD has made a bearish crossover.
Support: Thursday's low at $739.80.
Bottom line: Gold is likely to encounter stiff resistance at the bottom rail of the blue channel, which formerly provided strong support.
SILVER (daily)
Upside: RSI is turning upward from severely oversold levels.
Resistance: Earlier low at $12.31.
Downside: MACD has made a bearish crossover.
Support: Tuesday's low around $13; this month's low at $12.31.
Bottom line: Silver, which tends to lead gold when the market reaches extremes, is struggling to recover from its lowest levels in two years.
GDX (daily)
Upside: GDX gapped up convincingly on strong volume on Friday. RSI has risen out of the oversold zone and is showing a bullish divergence, as is MACD-Histogram.
Resistance: Bottom rail of blue channel.
Downside: No clear indication.
Support: Thursday's low at $27.35.
Bottom line: GDX has probably made a bottom, although it may conceivably return to test it. It would be a bullish sign if the putative runaway gap around $29 is tested but not closed.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (daily)Upside: After falling 1.24 on Friday, the index could bounce briefly before resuming its decline.
Resistance: Thursday's high at 80.38.
Downside: A correction to the dollar's steep ascent is under way. RSI is showing a bearish divergence and has fallen out of the overbought zone. MACD-Histogram is also showing a bearish divergence. MACD looks poised to make a bearish crossover.
Support: Gap and congestion area below 77.5; upper rail of green channel; 50-day MA.
Bottom line: The dollar index has a long way to fall before any support appears.
GOLD (daily)Upside: RSI is bouncing out of its oversold zone and is showing a bullish divergence.
Resistance: Bottom rail of blue channel; round number at $800.
Downside: MACD has made a bearish crossover.
Support: Thursday's low at $739.80.
Bottom line: Gold is likely to encounter stiff resistance at the bottom rail of the blue channel, which formerly provided strong support.
SILVER (daily)Upside: RSI is turning upward from severely oversold levels.
Resistance: Earlier low at $12.31.
Downside: MACD has made a bearish crossover.
Support: Tuesday's low around $13; this month's low at $12.31.
Bottom line: Silver, which tends to lead gold when the market reaches extremes, is struggling to recover from its lowest levels in two years.
GDX (daily)Upside: GDX gapped up convincingly on strong volume on Friday. RSI has risen out of the oversold zone and is showing a bullish divergence, as is MACD-Histogram.
Resistance: Bottom rail of blue channel.
Downside: No clear indication.
Support: Thursday's low at $27.35.
Bottom line: GDX has probably made a bottom, although it may conceivably return to test it. It would be a bullish sign if the putative runaway gap around $29 is tested but not closed.
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